TODAY AND WEDNESDAY: Much of the eastern half of Alabama is clear this morning, but some clouds from the disturbance on the Texas coast near Corpus Christi are affecting the western half of the state. Surface high pressure remained in place this morning with slightly drier air in place, so it appears likely showers will be limited again today and Wednesday, much like we saw on Monday. Highs should be in the lower half of the 90s.
REST OF THE WEEK: A low pressure system will move into the eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. This system will bring a cold front down into the northern portion of the Southeast on Thursday and Friday. With precipitable water values surging higher late Wednesday and into Thursday (see chart below), showers and thunderstorms should become numerous again Thursday and into Friday. There is a small risk that a few storms could produce severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging wind as instability values surge on Thursday and Friday.
Thanks to the additional clouds from the disturbance on the Texas coast and the presence of more storms, our highs from Wednesday through Friday should be held down a bit, with highs mainly in the upper half of the 80s. We probably won’t notice the slight heat reduction because the humidity levels will be high.
TROPICS: The Atlantic tropical basin is quiet with the exception of the area of disturbed weather on the Texas coast. This area will see 7 to 10 inches of rain over the next five days. There is a slight risk for additional heavy rains today along the frontal system stretching from Nebraska to the Mid-Atlantic states.
NEXT WEEK: From Sunday into the middle of next week, the upper flow pattern goes pretty close to zonal, so the surface front will remain stalled just north of us through Tuesday. While much of Alabama will see a return to daily heat-driven showers and storms, areas closer to the weak frontal boundary may see more numerous storms. Highs over the weekend and into next week should be in the range of 89 to 92.
LONG TERM: Looking into voodoo country, week 2 begins with weak troughiness over the eastern half of the U.S., but the Global Forecast System builds a substantial ridge into the eastern U.S. by the first of July. So it’s looking pretty warm as we head into July.
BEACH FORECAST: No effects from the Gulf system or Bud on the beautfiul beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
WEATHERBRAINS: You can listen to our weekly 90-minute netcast any time on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including meteorologists at ABC 33/40.
SPANN AWAY: James Spann is on vacation this week.
For more weather news and information from James Spann, Brian Peters and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.