Sales: According to the Baldwin County Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, Baldwin County condo sales, which include condos along the Gulf Coast, totaled 113 units during February, a 0.9 percent decrease from one year ago. Current sales results are 6.6 percent above the five-year February average of 106 condo sales. Two more resources to view: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of Baldwin County’s condo sales data, click here.
Forecast: February condo sales were five units or 4.6 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. Year-to-date, 214 Baldwin County condos have been sold, 7.5 percent above ACRE’s forecast of 199 condo sales through February.
Supply: Baldwin County condo inventory totaled 706 units in February, a decrease of 6.5 percent from one year ago. Condo inventory was down 1 percent from the prior month. This decrease in inventory is inconsistent with historical data from 2013-17 indicating that February inventory on average increases 3.5 percent from January. Condo inventory during February peaked in 2008 at 2,372 units, and the current inventory is down 70.2 percent from that peak.
Demand: Baldwin County condo sales increased 11.9 percent from the previous month. This month-over-month sales increase is consistent with historical data indicating that February condo sales on average (2013-17) increase from January by 24.5 percent. Condos selling in February averaged 77 days on the market. This is a significant improvement from one year ago, when condos averaged 169 days on the market.
Seeking balance: The inventory of condos for sale divided by the current monthly sales volume equals the number of months of housing supply. The market is considered to be in balance at approximately 6 months of supply. During February the area had 6.2 months of condo supply, down from 7.1 months of supply last month and down from 6.6 months of supply one year ago.
Pricing: The Baldwin County condo median sales price in February was $330,000, up 14.1 percent from one year ago. The median sales price increased 6.5 percent from the prior month. This month-over-month price increase is inconsistent with historical data trends from 2013-17 indicating that the February median sales price on average decreases 3.5 percent from January. ACRE highly recommends consulting with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: The 10-year treasury is a crucial indicator of economic expansion. As of March 1, 2018, the 10-year treasury stood at 2.88 percent, a slight increase from last month’s rate of 2.86 percent. Mortgage rates also experienced a slight increase recently as the current rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 4.57 percent, up from 4.38 percent one month ago. As the economy continues to strengthen, people will have more money in their pockets with the intent to spend. This increase in spending will most likely create higher stock prices and lower bond prices. With this increase of confidence in the market, mortgage interest rates can be expected to increase.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) produces economic analyses of the home-building industry based on government data. The Housing Market Index (HMI) depicts market conditions for the sale of new homes. The HMI ranges from 0 to 100; a rate greater than 50 represents good sales conditions.
The HMI in the South has stayed relatively steady in the past few months with a score of 73. However, the HMI is lower in some regions of the United States, such as the Northeast, which has a rate of 56. The West has a higher HMI of 77, and a better market for good housing conditions.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency uses the House Price Index (HPI) to measure the average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing on the same properties. The FHFA’s national HPI was up 6.7 percent from the previous year compared to Alabama, which has increased from the previous year by 5.6 percent. The HPI rose in all 49 states except for Mississippi.
Compared to the national housing market conditions, Alabama’s real estate market has been showing improvement. Although total residential sales in Alabama decreased 2.3 percent from January 2017, the statewide median sales price increased 2.3 percent from January 2017. Statewide, homes in Alabama are selling much more quickly than in recent years as the average days on the market decreased 19.6 percent from one year ago.
The Baldwin County Condo Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Baldwin County Association of Realtors to better serve both local and worldwide consumers interested in the beaches along Alabama’s Gulf Coast.