There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter-sized hail and damaging winds through this evening, generally along and north of a line from Reform to Autaugaville to Blue Springs. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms south of this line cannot be ruled out.
We’ll also have to watch for another mesoscale convective system that is headed southward through southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. If it can stay together through the morning and makes it to Alabama, we’ll have to watch for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph as it moves through. The latest guidance from the high-resolution North American Mesoscale has it arriving in the northern parts of the state by 2 p.m., then reaching east-central Alabama by 5 p.m. Then we may have another MCS move into the area from the north around 7 p.m. and weaken until it diminishes by midnight.
SUNDAY: Ridging over the Southeast will continue to pump more warm, humid air into Alabama on Sunday, but our rain chances will be less than we’ll see today. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy and we’ll have a slight chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern half of the state. Highs will be in the lower to mid-90s across much of Alabama with heat index values in the 100- to 105-degree range.
MONDAY: The ridge moves eastward, which will allow a more southerly flow across Alabama on Monday. This will increase rain chances, especially for northern Alabama, as a front tries to work in. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible south of the I-59 corridor and likely north of that. Highs will be in the mid-80s to the mid-90s from northwest to southeast.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: The ridge will build back into Alabama on Tuesday, but we’ll keep a good bit of moisture in place. That moisture will stick around on Wednesday, and we’ll have a chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms both days. Highs on both days will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: The ridge looks to break down to end the work week, allowing for more Gulf moisture to move into central Alabama. We’ll have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday with highs in the lower to mid-90s. Those scattered shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday, and we could even see a strong storm or two. Friday’s highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic Basin and no tropical cyclones are expected to form over the next five days.
BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region you are interested in.
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For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.