HUMID MORNING: it is a muggy late June morning across Alabama with dew points in the 70s for most communities. We note a few sprinkles over west Alabama, but the better chance of showers and thunderstorms will come later today as the air heats up and becomes unstable. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms defined for the northeast counties of the state this afternoon; heavier storms will be capable of strong straight-line winds and some hail.
We expect a high in the 88- to 92-degree range this afternoon; the average high for Birmingham on June 30 is 90.
REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday will be another very humid day with scattered showers and strong storms by afternoon. The SPC has a pretty good part of the state in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) again for potential for wet microbursts (local areas of strong, possibly damaging winds).
Thursday and Friday will be much the same, with a mix of sun and clouds along with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 87- to 90-degree range for most communities.
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: Very high precipitable water values will cover Alabama and the Deep South, so the weather will be very humid Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. On both days we will have to dodge showers and thunderstorms. Most of them (but not necessarily all) will come from about 1 until 9 p.m., and odds of any one spot getting wet both days will be around 50/50. There’s no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where they form; you will just have to watch radar trends if you have some event planned outdoors. Remember, when you hear thunder, get inside. Summer storms can pack hundreds of dangerous ground strokes. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK: We will keep the persistence forecast going — partly sunny days with the random, scattered showers and storms each afternoon. Highs will be in the 86- to 91-degree range.
TROPICS: A trough of low pressure is off the coast of North Carolina. Significant development of this system is not anticipated while it moves generally northeastward, away from the U.S. East Coast, and merges with a frontal boundary. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.
ON THIS DATE IN 1912: An estimated F4 tornado ripped through Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. The storm became the deadliest tornado in Canada’s history as it killed 28 people along a rare 18.5-mile track from south to north.
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